When Should You Buy Bitcoin

Daily Summary
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    ↗ Price ↑ & OI ↑ — Risky Up (leveraged)
    ↘ Price ↑ & OI ↓ — Healthy Up (spot-led)
    ↖ Price ↓ & OI ↑ — Squeeze Setup (crowded)
    ↙ Price ↓ & OI ↓ — Flush-Out (deleveraging)
    📊

    Real-Time Analysis

    Click "Check Real-Time Status" in the header to analyze current Bitcoin valuation metrics and determine if it's a good time to buy.

    🔮 Future Price Forecast

    Calculate Bitcoin's predicted price on any future date based on the Power Law model

    📊 Backtest / Strategy Simulator

    Test different Bitcoin investment strategies using historical data and power law projections

    Configure investment multipliers based on where current AHR999 ranks historically. Lower percentiles = cheaper Bitcoin.

    When checked, the strategy can invest without budget limits. When unchecked, total investment is limited to monthly budget × number of months.

    ⚠️ Note: This strategy can invest more than your monthly budget in a single month if multipliers are high and Bitcoin is undervalued.

    Percentile Range
    Multiplier
    Daily Amount
    Bottom 10% (EXTREME CHEAP) (AHR999 < 0.51)
    $82.10/day
    10-25% (Very Cheap) (0.51 - 0.69)
    $32.85/day
    25-50% (Cheap) (0.69 - 1.02)
    $16.43/day
    50-75% (Fair) (1.02 - 1.67)
    $0.00/day
    75-90% (Expensive) (1.67 - 3.64)
    $0.00/day
    Top 10% (VERY EXPENSIVE) (> 3.64)
    $0/day

    Configure investment multipliers based on fixed AHR999 value thresholds. This provides deterministic behavior regardless of historical data.

    ⚠️ Note: Uses absolute AHR999 values, not historical percentiles.

    AHR999 Range
    Multiplier
    Daily Amount
    0 - 0.45 (EXTREME CHEAP)
    $82.15/day
    0.45 - 0.5 (Very Cheap)
    $49.29/day
    0.5 - 0.6 (Cheap)
    $32.86/day
    0.6 - 0.7 (Fair)
    $16.43/day
    0.7 - 0.8 (Getting Expensive)
    $8.22/day
    0.8 - 0.9 (Expensive)
    $0.00/day
    0.9 - 1.0 (Very Expensive)
    $0.00/day
    > 1.0 (EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE)
    $0.00/day

    Invest full multiplier amount even if it exceeds monthly budget. (e.g., 5x multiplier = invest 5 days of budget in 1 day)

    Configure the continuous curve strategy with power law multiplier and optional drawdown boost.

    Floor multiplier when Bitcoin is expensive

    Ceiling multiplier when Bitcoin is cheap

    Controls curve shape. Recommended: 1.0-3.0 (2.0 is balanced). Higher values = more aggressive (only invest heavily when extremely cheap).

    AHR999 value where buying is maximized

    AHR999 value where buying stops (or hits min)

    Boosts multiplier up to 2x if price is far below 180-day peak. Helps catch major dips.

    Budget resets at the start of each calendar month. Uncheck to allow unlimited spending.