When Should You Buy
Today
Checking today's valuation…
BTC / USD
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200-day DCA cost
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Power-law trend
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ahr999 · how cheap
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A weak signal: buying more when ahr999 was low beat plain DCA by about 4% at best, and trailed it by 14% with a monthly budget.
Cross-checks
Market backdrop
Context, not buy triggersFull daily summary English · 中文
Daily Summary
Detailed valuation numbers
Tap a chart to read values. Use Full screen to drag and pinch-zoom.
Where the trend points
The power-law trend line from Price Comparison, carried forward. It is a long-run average that price has spent years above and below, not a price target.
Loading projections…
↗ Price ↑ & OI ↑ — Risky Up (leveraged)
↘ Price ↑ & OI ↓ — Healthy Up (spot-led)
↖ Price ↓ & OI ↑ — Squeeze Setup (crowded)
↙ Price ↓ & OI ↓ — Flush-Out (deleveraging)
What the backtest found
Plain DCA is hard to beat
$500 a month from Sep 2017 to Sep 2026. What each $100 of budget grew to:
- Plain daily DCA $533 baseline
- AHR999 tilt, unspent money saved for later $556 +4%
- AHR999 tilt, monthly limit (the default below) $460 −14%
Buying more when AHR999 is low is a small tilt, not a timing tool. It only helped when the money it skipped could be spent later, and it lost when that money expired each month.
Every strategy uses only data known on each simulated day. Budget left unspent counts as cash, so all strategies are compared on the same money.
Run your own backtestBacktest a strategy
Test different Bitcoin investment strategies using historical data and power law projections
Configure investment multipliers based on where current AHR999 ranks historically. Lower percentiles = cheaper Bitcoin.
When checked, the strategy can invest without budget limits. When unchecked, total investment is limited to monthly budget × number of months.
⚠️ Note: This strategy can invest more than your monthly budget in a single month if multipliers are high and Bitcoin is undervalued.
Percentile Range
Multiplier
Daily Amount
Bottom 10% (EXTREME CHEAP)
(AHR999 < 0.51)
$82.10/day
10-25% (Very Cheap)
(0.51 - 0.69)
$32.85/day
25-50% (Cheap)
(0.69 - 1.02)
$16.43/day
50-75% (Fair)
(1.02 - 1.67)
$0.00/day
75-90% (Expensive)
(1.67 - 3.64)
$0.00/day
Top 10% (VERY EXPENSIVE)
(> 3.64)
$0/day
Configure investment multipliers based on fixed AHR999 value thresholds. This provides deterministic behavior regardless of historical data.
⚠️ Note: Uses absolute AHR999 values, not historical percentiles.
AHR999 Range
Multiplier
Daily Amount
0 - 0.45 (EXTREME CHEAP)
$82.15/day
0.45 - 0.5 (Very Cheap)
$49.29/day
0.5 - 0.6 (Cheap)
$32.86/day
0.6 - 0.7 (Fair)
$16.43/day
0.7 - 0.8 (Getting Expensive)
$8.22/day
0.8 - 0.9 (Expensive)
$0.00/day
0.9 - 1.0 (Very Expensive)
$0.00/day
> 1.0 (EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE)
$0.00/day
Invest full multiplier amount even if it exceeds monthly budget. (e.g., 5x multiplier = invest 5 days of budget in 1 day)
Configure the continuous curve strategy with power law multiplier and optional drawdown boost.
Floor multiplier when Bitcoin is expensive
Ceiling multiplier when Bitcoin is cheap
Controls curve shape. Recommended: 1.0-3.0 (2.0 is balanced). Higher values = more aggressive (only invest heavily when extremely cheap).
AHR999 value where buying is maximized
AHR999 value where buying stops (or hits min)
Boosts multiplier up to 2x if price is far below 180-day peak. Helps catch major dips.
Budget resets at the start of each calendar month. Uncheck to allow unlimited spending.
Useful links
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